True Agenda of the General Election in Japan

The upper-house election was officially announced today in Japan.  The polling date was on October 22.

There is a possibility that Prime Minister Abe will be forced to resign even if his Liberal Democratic Party and Komei-to Party, forming the coalition ruling patties, win a majority (233 seats) of the lower-house seats if LDP loses scores of seats from its past 287 seats.

From the beginning, PM Abe decided to dissolve the upper house and hold this election to avoid criticism on him due to the Moritomo/Kake scandals where PM Abe is believed to have exercised his political influence in favor of the Moritomo primary school and a university belonging to the Kakei school group.

However, PM Abe raised reformation of the Constitution as one of the agendas for the election.  PM Abe claims that the Japanese pacifist Constitution should be changed so that the Self-Defense Forces should be explicitly authorized in the Constitution.  He wants to give Japan's Defense Forces a status that is enjoyed by military of normal countries.  The Japanese Constitution literally inhibits the Japanese Government from holding military forces, so that it calls the organizations with military powers the Self-Defense Forces but not the army, the navy, and the air forces.

However, the current Japanese Constitution enacted in 1947, when Japan was under occupation of the allied forced led by General MacArthur, has never been revised in these 70 years.  Nationalists and right-wing politicians like PM Shinzo Abe has long wanted to revise the Constitution and give constitutional authorization to the Self-Defense Forces.  As a matter of fact, the US currently stations about 40,000 soldiers in Japan and runs several big air bases and naval ports with one home port for one of its nuclear aircraft carriers in Japan.  The Japanese people believe that they are protected from Russia, China, North Korea, etc. with this US forces and its nuclear weapons in addition to the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.  So the Japanese people don't want to upgrade the status of its Self-Defense Forces, since it might trigger militarism that once dragged Japan into WWII.

Mr. Abe is very pro-America, but he also wants to upgrade the constitutional status of the Self-Defense Forces and he is supported by nationalists and right-wing people.

Liberal or progressive movement is Japan is not strong.  Maybe 30% of Diet members are pacifists, liberal or progressive.  Most of them are not so pro-American.   But most of Japanese voters are pro-American.  So, left-wing parties, represented by the Japanese Communist Party, has only a slim chance of holding power in Japan through election.  But most of Japanese are also pacifists and don't join right-wing movement.  They don't want to even revise the current Constitution.

So, it is doubtful that PM Abe will win this election with overwhelming support from voters.  But it is also unlikely that he will lose the election.  The ruling parties of Abe's LDP and Komei-to will secure a majority, but it seems to be likely that LDP will lose scores of seats.   The point at issue is how many seats LDP will lose rather than the political agenda related to the national security.  If LDP loses almost 100 seats, Mr. Shinzo Abe might be forced to step down from the presidency of LDP and the premiership.

Tokyo Governor Koike Creating Boom in National Election in Japan

The most focused-on figure in this lower-house election in Japan is Tokyo Governor Ms. Yuriuko Koike.

She had been a lawmaker of the National Diet from 1992 to 2016 when she quit the Diet lawmaker position and ran for the Tokyo gubernatorial election.  Before her, two successive Tokyo Governors were forced to resign in the middle for their terms for various scandals.  She created a boom and wan the election.

During her 24-year terms of a Diet lawmaker, she changed parties she belonged to several times.  She was a member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) when she decided to run for the Tokyo gubernatorial election last year.  The president of LDP is Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.  However, PM Abe in his cabinets since 2012 never appointed her to a Minister of State although she had been appointed to the Minister of Defense in Abe's cabinet when he was previously prime minister of Japan from 2006 to 2007.  The relation between PM Abe and Ms. Koike was not good.  So, last year, while LDP led by PM Abe supported another candidate for Tokyo Governor, Ms. Koike dared to run for  the Tokyo gubernatorial election, challenging PM Abe's leadership.  She even established Tomin First party for election of Tokyo metropolitan assembly election this summer.  Tomin First party got more seats than LDP got.  It looked as if Ms. Koike had defeated LDP and PM Abe.

In this lower-house election, Ms. Koike has established the Kibono-to party and sent about 200 or more candidates. As she is conservative, which is proved by her former membership in LDP, two conservative parties are facing each other: LDP led by PM Abe and Kibono-to led by Ms. Koike. Kibono-to took in many conservative members of Minshin-to, the largest opposition party till the lower-house dissolution at the end of this September. She made them consent to accept conservative plocies she drafted. The liberal or leftist members of Minshin-to who could not accept the conservative policies launched their won new party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.  So, Minshin-to was virtually split into two new parties: Kibono-to and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

LDP had more than 280 seats and Minshin-to had about 90 seats in the lower-house before the dissolution. In this election, the majority is 233.  PM Abe aims to secure 233 or more seats in a tie up with Komei-to that had 35 seats before the dissolution of the lower house.  But the approval rate of PM Abe has decreased to less than 40% recently.  Ms. Koike's Kibono-to is expected to win around 150 seats.  So, although it is not estimated that PM Abe and LDP/Komei-to would lose a majority, Ms. Koime's Kibono-to will be the largest opposition party.

However, Ms. Koike will reportedly not run for the lower house election.  She will continue to be Tokyo Governor.  But she is the head of Kibono-to.  After the election, the lower house will vote for the prime minister.  The problem is who the Kobono-to's lower house lawmakers will vote for as prime minister.  They cannot cast votes for Ms. Koike, since she is Tokyo Governor.  However, some people suspect that she will run for the lower-house election immediately before the official campaign period that will start on October 10 during which no other candidates can announce their candidacy.

The Japanese Media is reporting on Ms. Koike more often than PM Abe nowadays.  Indeed, Tokyo Governor Koike is the most focused on in this lower house election in Japan.

North Korean Nuclear/Missile Tests as Backgrounds of Japan's Election

North Korean Nuclear/Missile Tests as Backgrounds of Japan's Election

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the lower house of the Japanese Diet in the middle of the North Koran nuclear missile crisis.  There is strong criticism against Abe's decision.  But it is apparent that PM Abe doesn't think that a war will occur sooner or later in the Korean Peninsula.

From 1910 to 1945 the Korean Peninsula was under control of the Imperial Japanese Government.  The Korean Kingdom was diplomatically and legally absorbed by Imperial Japan.  Since the Meiji Restoration in Japan in 1868 where the nation opened its door to the world, abolished samurai regime, and launched modern government around the emperor, Japan wanted the Korean Kingdom to follow suit, establish a diplomatic tie with Japan, and cooperate with Japan to stand against Russians invading the Far East and Chinese still having a political influence on the Korean government.

Through the the First Sino-Japanese War (1894 – 1895) and the Russo–Japanese War (1904-1905), Japan intensified its interference with the Korean government.  Although Japan removed the Chinese influence on the Korean court in the the First Sino-Japanese War, pressure of Russians and their policy to invade the Far East never ceased.  Russian troops and Japanese troops faced each other in Manchria, north of North Korea.  Chinese did not show any sincere attitudes to stop the Russian invasion in cooperation with Japan.  Finally, Tokyo decided to annex Korea.  It was carried out without strong protest from Koreans most of whom were farmers controlled by the Korean noble class.

Under the Japanese occupation, Korea achieved some Westernization.  Western countries that colonized some regions in Africa, Asia, or America took more from their colonies than they gave to the colonies.   But the Imperial Japanese Government gave more to Korea than it took from Korea to improve agriculture and build industries in Korea.  So, there was no big uprising of Koreans against Tokyo.

However, in 1945 in WWII,  the US carried out atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the Soviet Union started war against Japan and invaded Manchuria.  Then Tokyo surrendered, and Korans got independent from Japan.

Japan was devastated and its industries were severely damaged by US air raids in WWII.  But when the Korean War occurred between 1950 and 1953, the Japanese economy enjoyed special procurement boom.  The US sent many troops to the Korean Peninsula, used Japan as bases of support for those troops, and purchased large quantity of military equipment and related items in Japan.

After the Korean War that split the Peninsula between north and south, Japan and South Korea (the Republic of Korea) concluded the Treaty on Basic Relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea in 1965, which settled every issue between Japan and Korea since Japan's annexation of Korea, including various compensation of Koreans forced to work in Japan in the era.

However, with an increase of economic power of South Korea, it changed its position in relationship with Japan.  In 1990s, some left Japanese raised an issue of the Korean comfort women who were forced to provide services to Japanese troops in WWII.  Then Koreans joined this accusation of Japanese ex-militarism (Japan adopted the pacifist Constitution after WWII.).  When it entered the 21st century, anti-Japanese sentiment in South Korea was further intensified.  Some Koreans are trying to build statues of a comfort woman even in the US and Europe as well as in front of the Japanese consulate in South Korea.

In the mean time, North Korea did not conclude peace treaty with South Korea and the US after the Korean War where China and the Soviet Union supported North Korea while the US and major members of the United Nations bolstered South Korea.  North Korea became essential for defense of China against the US stationing many troops in South Korea and Japan.  North Korea's trade with China became essential for existence of North Korea.  The two countries came to depend on each other.  Besides, the Kim family stuck to the position of dictator in North Korea since its independence after WWII even after the death of Kim Il-Sung in 1994 and Kim Jong-il in 2011.  Kim Jong-un, a son of Kim Jong-il, still pursues the militarism with development of long-range missiles and nuclear bombs.

But the most significant issue for Japanese is the fact that North Koran spies and agents who illegally entered Japan abducted many Japanese, took them to North Korean, and forced them to teach Japanese to North Korean spies and agents since 1970s till probably 1990s.  It is believed that North Korea abducted hundreds of Japanese, although they returned several Japanese and their families in response to then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visit to Pyongyang for diplomatic negotiation that eventually failed.      

Today, North Korea conducts nuclear tests and missile tests so openly and frequently.  Looking back to long and complicated history between Japan and the Korean Peninsula, the Japanese Government needs careful handling.  Most of Japanese people don't think that a war in the Korean Peninsula is imminent, but also think it is too careless for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to have dissolved, in the end of September, the lower house with decisive power to choose prime minister of Japan.  If anything wrong should occur in the Korean Peninsula or between the North Korean military and US/South Korean troops, Japan cannot avoid serious influence.  It is even assumed that hundreds of thousands of Korean refugees will rush to Japan over the Sea of Japan if a military conflict should happen in the Peninsula.

So, this general election in Japan seems to be going on in the bad timing and the bad situation.  PM Abe's judgment to hold the election under this condition should be one of the issues in the election. 

Abe's Popularity

Abe's Popularity

When then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited Pyongyang in September 2002 to meet Kim Jong-il, Shinzo Abe, as deputy chief cabinet secretary, accompanied Koizumi.  It was well reported that Abe gave precious advice to Koizumi in the venue of the meeting with then North Korean leader Kim.  And when five Japanese abductees returned to Japan from North Korea in October, Abe is said to have contributed to their permanent stay in Japan, although North Korea allowed them to tentatively return to Japan.   These incidents boosted popularity of Shinzo Abe.

So, Shinzo Abe succeeded Koizumi as prime minister of Japan when Koizumi voluntarily stepped down in 2006.  However, Abe could not make his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) win in the upper-house election in 2007.  And with mental and physical slump, he suddenly stepped down from the premiership in September 2007.  Abe was severely criticized, and he looked like loosing any hope in future as a politician.

However, in the presidential election of the LDP in September 2012, Abe ran and wan.  He also wan the lower-house election held in December 2012.  Prime Minister Abe worked out a new economic policy, called Abenmics, to deal with deflation.  In Abenomics, the Central Bank of Japan started to buy Japanese Government bonds from the market and banks beyond the past level to provide and circulate big money in the market, which resulted in a falling yen against the US dollar and increase of the Tokyo Stock Nikkei index.  The employment rate was also improved.  And, PM Abe got high reputation in Japan and abroad.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party of Japan that held power between 2009 and 2012 lost support of voters since they could not improve economy and respond properly to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident.  So, Abe enjoyed overwhelming advantage with a high approval rate.   

But in this year, Abe has come to face strong criticism because of the Morito/Kake scandals.  Voters found that Abe used his influential power to help his right-wing supporter Mr. Kagoike (in the Moritomo case) and his old friend Mr. Kake in their educational business.  To avoid further criticism, PM Abe dissolved the lower house a week ago or so.

Abe's popularity is still high, but Ms. Koike, popular Tokyo Governor, launched Kibono-to Party to challenge him.  And, many voters have come to doubt political cleanness of Abe.  Therefore, there is a possibility that his party LDP will lose a majority of lower-house seats.  That is the big concern of Japanese people today.

The point is whether Abe's popularity is still real or not. 

Split of Japan's Largest Opposition Party Minshinto

Split of Japan's Largest Opposition Party Minshinto

There is the communist party in Japan.  It has a long history as it was established, though unofficially, in 1922.  It had 21 seats among 475 seats of the lower house before the dissolution a weak ago.  This party is positioned on the leftest side of the Japanese politics.

However, the ruling parties consist of the Liberal Democratic Party (286/475) and Komeito (35/475).  Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is president of LDP.  Unlike Democrats in the US, LDP is conservative and pro-capitalism.  Komeito is a party based on a Buddhist association called Sokagakkai.  These ruling parties have held power in these decades except some minor periods such as that between 2009 and 2012 in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

There is a very minor socialistic party that was, however, once the leading opposition party till 1990s.  But other seats have been mostly occupied by Minsihinto (88/475) that held power between 2009 and 2012.  Minishinto consists of very conservative members as those of LDP and very liberal or socialistic members.   

When PM Abe dissolved the lower house, it was expected that Minshinto would become the major rival.  But Minshinto has been split into a conservative group going to join Kibonoto, a liberal group going to join the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, and independents in this process toward the official lower-house election period.  Kibonoto was recently launched by popular Tokyo Governor Ms. Yuriko Koike, while the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan was set today by Mr. Edano, one of the candidates in the Minshinto presidential election held a month ago.  Kibonoto is essentially conservative as Ms. Koike is an ex-lower-house member of LDP, while  the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is liberal because of Mr. Edano's political stance.

The coming general election has been set as PM Abe dissolved the lower house while criticism on him has been getting stronger due to the Moritomo/Kake scandals where PM Abe is believed to have supported the Moritomo school and a Kake-associated university by using his political influence beyond commonsense in the politics. 

But it has triggered the split of Minshinto, the largest opposition party, because Tokyo Governor Ms. Koike suddenly launched Kibinoto to challenge PM Abe based on her great popularity.  Most of lower-house members of Minshinto wanted to use Mr. Koike's popularity for reelection.  President of Minshinto Mr. Maehara promised them that Kibonoto would accept them all after negotiation with Ms. Koike.  But it was made clear that Ms. Koike would reject liberal members of Minshinto, which triggered big commotion among liberal lower-house members of Minshinto, leading to Edano's formation of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

As prospect, in the coming general election,  conservative voters who don't support PM Abe due to the scandal would vote for Kibonoto, while liberal voters who  who don't support PM Abe from the beginning would vote for the Japan Communist Party or the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.  Only conservative voters who don't mind Abe's scandal would vote for LDP/Komeito.

So, there is a possibility that PM Abe will lose a majority of seats in the lower house.  It might be good or bad in the current diplomatic situation where US President Trump is losing his popularity and North Korea is still willing to further pursue development of nuclear missiles, while MP Abe was a strong tie with President Trump.

Therefore, many Japanese are turning strong attention to the coming election day of August 22, 2017.

Abenomics vs the Morito/Kake Scandals

Abenomics vs the Moritomo/Kake Scandals

The high approval rating of Prime Minister Abe has been supported by the success of the so-called Abenomics.

Before the start of the Abe Cabinet in the end of 2012, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index had been around 8,000 yen and the yen was exchanged with the US dollar at around 85 yen.  However in a year or two under the Abe administration, the stock index became around 18,000 yen and the exchange rate changed to 100 yen per dollar.  The employment situation was greatly improved.  The Government promised that Japan would finally get out of the deflation era that had lasted for 20 years.  PM Abe boasted that his new economic policy, called Abenomics by himself, was so successful.

However, today, 5 years after the start of his Cabinet, the boom look like getting saturated.  The Tokyo Nikkei index is around 20,000 yen and the yen/dollar rate is around 110 yen.  Deflation is not still completely ended.  The Central Bank of Japan set the target of the Consumer Price Index at 2%, but CPI is still around 0%, meaning that Japanese economy is still close to deflation.  In this situation PM Abe decided to postpone increasing the consumer tax rate to 10% in 2016, which was welcomed by the public.  But, he plans to increase the current 8% rate to 10% in the next year, which is unpopular among voters.

Japanese voters despised Minshin Party (old Japan Democratic Party) that had taken over the reins of the Government before Abe wan the election in the end of 2012 more than they despised PM Abe suffering the Moritomo/Kake scandals.   In the era of old Japan Democratic Party's administration, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index had been around 8,000 yen and the yen was exchanged with the US dollar at around 85 yen.  There was no new economics, but the old Japan Democratic Party's Cabinet tried to increase the consumer tax rate.  And, they fell from power.

Since then, PM Abe wan almost every election at the national level.  His approval rating has been above 50%.  But this time, the situation is different, his approval rating fell to 30% or so a few months ago when various reports exposed PM Abe's involvement, although indirect, in the Moritomo/Kake scandals.  To get rid of this notoriety, PM Abe dissolved the lower house and planned to hold the general election in the end of October.

So, it depends on Japanese voters.  Do they weigh Abenomics more heavily than the Moritomo/Kake scandals or do they simply request fairness and justice in politics?  Of course, any proud people will not turn their eyes away from wrongdoing of any successful politicians.  So, this election is a test on morals of Japanese voters. 
  　　

2017 General Election in Japan

2017 General Election in Japan

It was expected around the end of 2016 that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would dissolve the lower house in January.  His popularity and approval rate were so high at the time.  But, the situation changed gradually and decisively as the Moritomo and then the Kake scandals surfaced.

From January to date, the Media has reported the the Moritomo and the Kake scandals everyday.  Opposition party members have raised the issue of the scandals in sessions in the Diet.  They have disclosed the fact that the head, Mr. Kagoike, of the Moritomo kindergarten and elementary school was treated illegally favorably by a district office of the Ministry of Finance when he purchased a government-owned site in Osaka because he was closely associated to Prime Minister Abe.  Even, Mrs. Abe helped Mr. Kagoike as she became honorable school master of the Moritomo elementary school.

Mr. Kagoike was educating patriotism in his kindergarten.  This stance enabled him to associate with right-wing notable public figures and politicians, one of whom was Prime Minister Abe.  And, when Mr. Kagoike planned to build a private elementary school to further promote patriotism among children, he decided to purchase a government-owned site in Osaka which was believed to be priced at 900 million yen.  But the district office of the Ministry of Finance requested him only to pay 100 million yen or so.  A 800 million price cut due to Mr. Kagoike's association with Prime Minister Abe!

So, the Media and opposition party leaders have focused on this issue.  Almost everyday the newspapers and TV news shows have taken up this Moritomo scandal in these months.  In addition, the Kake scandal also surfaced.

Mr. Kake is the head of the Kake school group.  He planned to establish Veterinary Medicine in one of a university of his school group.   And it was doubted that he used his connection to Prime Minister Abe in obtaining permission for launching the new faculty of veterinary medicine in Ehime Prefecture from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.  Mr. Kake and Mr. Abe are old friends.  They often played golf together and dined with each other.  Mr. Abe's influence on this issue was especially suspected as the official permission for establishment of the new Veterinary Medicine was promptly given while the Government had a policy not to authorize new establishment of Veterinary Medicine in universities in Japan for decades.

Prime Minister Abe could not deliver reasonable explanation about his relationships with Mr. Kagoike and Mr. Kake.   He could not make the public consent that he had nothing to do with the the Moritomo and the Kake cases.  His approval rating went down.  So, he reshuffled his Cabinet this August.  The approval rating stopped falling, but still the Media and the opposition party members continued to follow after the scandals.  The opposition parties requested to convene a special session of the Diet so that they could ask more questions about the Moritomo and the Kake scandals of PM Abed.  Virtually, in response to this request, PM Abe dissolves the lower house last week.  The public thought that this dissolution was made in order to hide the scandals.

In the political situation, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Miner Abe overwhelms the opposition parties in approval rating.  The ruling  LDP and the Komeito Party enjoyed two thirds of lower-house seats till the dissolution.  So, it was thought that PM Abe would be overwhelmingly supported by voters, since the leading opposition party Minsinto suffered some scandals and its new leader, Mr. Maehara, was just elected in early September.

This is the background of this general election in Japan.  It is by PM Abe, for PM Abe, and on PM Abe.

But, popular Tokyo Governor Ms. Yuriko Koike suddenly decided to form Kibonoto Party, take most of Minshito politicians in her new party, and challenge Mr. Abe.

This is the largest concern of the Japanese public.  Can Prime Minsiter Abe comfortably receive President Trump expected to visit Japan in November in the middle of the North Korean nuclear missile crisis?  It depends of the outcome of the coming election where ballots will be cast on October 22.