Abenomics vs the Moritomo/Kake Scandals
The high approval rating of Prime Minister Abe has been supported by the success of the so-called Abenomics.
Before the start of the Abe Cabinet in the end of 2012, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index had been around 8,000 yen and the yen was exchanged with the US dollar at around 85 yen. However in a year or two under the Abe administration, the stock index became around 18,000 yen and the exchange rate changed to 100 yen per dollar. The employment situation was greatly improved. The Government promised that Japan would finally get out of the deflation era that had lasted for 20 years. PM Abe boasted that his new economic policy, called Abenomics by himself, was so successful.
However, today, 5 years after the start of his Cabinet, the boom look like getting saturated. The Tokyo Nikkei index is around 20,000 yen and the yen/dollar rate is around 110 yen. Deflation is not still completely ended. The Central Bank of Japan set the target of the Consumer Price Index at 2%, but CPI is still around 0%, meaning that Japanese economy is still close to deflation. In this situation PM Abe decided to postpone increasing the consumer tax rate to 10% in 2016, which was welcomed by the public. But, he plans to increase the current 8% rate to 10% in the next year, which is unpopular among voters.
Japanese voters despised Minshin Party (old Japan Democratic Party) that had taken over the reins of the Government before Abe wan the election in the end of 2012 more than they despised PM Abe suffering the Moritomo/Kake scandals. In the era of old Japan Democratic Party's administration, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index had been around 8,000 yen and the yen was exchanged with the US dollar at around 85 yen. There was no new economics, but the old Japan Democratic Party's Cabinet tried to increase the consumer tax rate. And, they fell from power.
Since then, PM Abe wan almost every election at the national level. His approval rating has been above 50%. But this time, the situation is different, his approval rating fell to 30% or so a few months ago when various reports exposed PM Abe's involvement, although indirect, in the Moritomo/Kake scandals. To get rid of this notoriety, PM Abe dissolved the lower house and planned to hold the general election in the end of October.
So, it depends on Japanese voters. Do they weigh Abenomics more heavily than the Moritomo/Kake scandals or do they simply request fairness and justice in politics? Of course, any proud people will not turn their eyes away from wrongdoing of any successful politicians. So, this election is a test on morals of Japanese voters.
