Japan, the World's Largest Holder of Overseas Net Assets

Xinhua, a Chinese media, candidly reported the strength of the Japanese economy: Japan's overseas assets reached a record high of US$10 trillion.

Japan remains world's largest holder of overseas net assets: gov't
Source: Xinhua| 2017-05-26

TOKYO, May 26 (Xinhua) -- Japan remains the world's largest holder of overseas net assets, with net balance of its external assets totaling 349.11 trillion yen (3.14 trillion U.S. dollars) at the end of 2016, the Japanese government said on Friday.
The figure, rising for the first time in two years, reflects Japanese companies' increased investment overseas as well as purchase of foreign bonds, said a report by Japan's Finance ministry.
According to the report, Japan's overseas assets reached a record high of 997.77 trillion yen at the end of 2016, up by 5.0 percent from a year earlier and rising for the eight straight year.
Among them, foreign direct investment reached 159.19 trillion yen, up by 7.34 trillion yen from a year earlier, while portfolio investment reached 452.92 trillion yen, up by 29.60 trillion yen year on year.

Although it has been said that Japan lost its economic power since early 1990's, having lost 20 years.  But the Japanese people did not become lazy and started to abandon their efforts in industry and commercial.

But Japan invested in China with great technical and scientific aid.  Japanese enterprises also invested in other Asian countries and transferred its manufacturing bases to China and other countries.  They were also busy building factories in the US and Mexico.

Due to cheaper Chinese labor force Japanese manufacturers took the advantage of in these decades, the price level of goods and services in Japan has not increased, which has capped the salary level of the Japanese workers.   It is the main source of Japan's deflation.  Japanese workers have not seen a rise of their wages in these decades while Chinese laborers have experienced a great increase in their wages.

The success of the Chinese economy since 1990s mostly owed to Japan's aid which was driven by the merit of Chinese cheaper labor force and Japan's sense of compassion to China that suffered great damage in WWII and the war with the Empire of Japan from 1936 and 1945.  But the Chinese Communist Party is still set on a myth that it got legitimacy as it fought and won the Japanese Imperial troops in WWII.  Accordingly, the Chinese Government led by the Chinese Communist Party never felt gratitude for Japan's great economic aid since late 1970s.  Rather, China duped Japan, stole technology and patents from Japan, tried to defame Japan, and tied up with anti-Japanese people in the US. and advanced European countries.

The Chinese Communist Party, then led by Mao Tse-tung, never fully fought and won the Imperial Japan, but it was the Kuomintang or Nationalist Party of China, led by Chiang Kai-shek, and its troops that fully challenged and confronted the Empire of Japan in WWII with help from the US and the Soviet Union.

From the beginning, the Chinese Communist Party occupied China based on a false myth.  It should correct its view on history and cooperate with Japan with the sense of gratitude for Japan's aid in these decades.     

Prime Minister Abe Won but Not Praised

Finally, the 48th Lower House election in Japan was over with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's victory, while a huge typhoon was passing Japan from the last Saturday to Monday.

Changes of seats between before and after the election are as follows:

[Ruling parties]
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)   284 => 284
Komeito                                       35 => 29

[Oppositions]
Rikken Minsyuto                          15 => 55
(CDP: Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan)
Kibonoto (Hope)                          57 => 50
Japanese Communist Party           21 => 12
Others                                         60 => 35　　　

So, the total seats of the ruling parties changed from 319 to 313, while the total of the oppositions and independents changed from 153 to 152 as the total seats of the Lower House were reduced from 475 to 465.

So, outwardly it looks as if two thirds of the Japanese voters approved PM Abe and the conservative ruling parties while one third of voters supported the Oppositions, including conservative and socialistic politicians. 

In terms of the ratio among seats in the national Diet, PM Abe got big support for his agenda of modifying the pacifist Constitution, since right-of-center Kibonoto has made it clear to support the modification of the Constitution, though, with some difference in emphasis of specific Articles.  However, still half of voters don't want Abe to continue his premiership, according to surveys by newspaper companies.

But the data on the number of voters for each party show a different landscape since most of the winners are from the single-seat electoral districts.

The numbers of voters in proportional-representation constituencies, total 56 million, who voted for the major parties:

LDP         26.5 million

CDP        11 million
Hope        9.7 million

So, the two major opposition parties combined got almost 20 million votes while LDP led by PM Abe got 26.5 million ballots.  Most lawmakers of the two Oppositions are from old Democratic Party of Japan that once held power from 2009 to 2012.

The total votes for the opposition parties and independents in the proportional-representation constituencies were 29.8 million while those of the ruling parties led by PM Abe were 25.6 million.  So, it is natural that researches tell that half of the Japanese voters don't want Prime Minister Abe, being accused of some scandals, to continue his premiership even while North Korea is making tests of nuclear weapons and missiles in these months.

The voting rate was the second lowest since the end of WWII: 53.68%.

What Will Happen on Tomorrow, the Voting Day of Japan

Ballots will be cast tomorrow for the 2017 lower-house election in Japan.  It is expected that the ruling parties, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Komeito Party based on the Buddhist association Sokagakkai, will secure 300 seats among total 465.

But now a huge typhoon is approaching to Japan.  Most of Japan will suffer strong winds and rains tomorrow, so that  the voter turnout will be low.  Some electoral districts have accelerated the voting day to today, the day before the specified voting day.  And, when the voting rate is low, the ruling parties are given advantage.

When the then opposition party Democratic Party of Japan wan the election to take over power from LDP and Komeito in 2009, the voting rate was about 70%.  When LDP and Komeito took over power in 2012, it was about 59%.  But it was less than 55% in the 2014 general election where LDP and Komeito secured their power.

For the conservative coalition of LDP and Komeito, the low voting rate is advantageous.  Or, the mainstream trend of the Japanese politics is conservative.  It is rather exceptional that liberal or leftist parties such as Democratic Party of Japan wan an election.  Those liberal or progressive parties, in order to win election, need social environment and climate where voters are tired of or feel alarm about a conservative regime.  When people are discontent with ruling parties, the number of voters will increase.  But when people don't find any significant reason for replacing a regime, the voting rate decreases.

Abenomics has been partly successful.  Conservative parties are partly supported by international situations where North Korea is busy testing nuclear bombs and missiles and Trump is taking a hard stance on the Japanese-American trade relationship.  Scandals involving Prime Minister Abe do not seem to have strong impacts to the extent of threatening his political ground.  Accordingly, it is expected that PM Abe and his party LDP will win.

And the only strong momentum among the oppositions has been caused by Tokyo Governor Ms. Yuriko Koike who has challenged PM Abe (probably from a personal reason that she was not respected by Mr. Abe when she was in LDP till last year for years) and by Mr. Edano who formed the Rikken Minsyuto Party after Minshinto (old Democratic Party of Japan) was split after most of its members joined the Kibonoto Party established by Ms. Koike for her high popularity and reducing support of voters for Minshinto.  This movement might not strongly appeal to voters.

However, only God knows what will happen tomorrow, Oct. 22, 2017.   

Abenomics or Scandals

The results of the 2014 lower-house election of the Japanese Diet as follows in terms of the number of seats each party acquired among the total 475 seats.

Liberal Democratic Party (led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe): 291
Komeito (another ruling paty): 35

Democratic Party of Japan: 73
Ishinnoto: 41
Japanese Communist Party: 21

Others: 6

PM Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wan the election, securing two thirds of the seats in a tie with Komeito.

As the ruling parties secures 2/3 seats even in the upper house, PM Abe could have even tried to change the Constitution.  But, he did not venture into this controversial movement, but decided to dissolve the lower house as response to criticism to his political attitudes causing the Morito/Kakei scandals.

As PM Abe is well known for his desire to change the pacifist Constitution and specify the Self Defense Forces as ordinary military most of countries have, opposition parties are worried that PM Abe and the ruling parties dare to change the Constitution if they win in this 2017 election.

The reason why PM Abe and the ruling parties wan the 2014 election overwhelmingly is not because Japanese voters wanted or consented to changing the Constitution but because economics was rather in good conditions due to the so-called Abenomics.  The popularity of PM Abe depends on success in economy.  For example, the Nikei index of the Tokyo Stock Market has recently marked 21,000 yen for the first time in these 20 years.  The general public don't want opposition parties or other politicians that belonged to the Democratic Party under which the stock price was around 8,500 yen to come back to power since 2012.

But, some critics argue that even Hitler succeeded in economics.  So, they say that Abe's scandals must be weighed more than the success of economics.  PM Abe got arrogant due to the economic success and he started to do special or almost illegal favor to his friends beyond commonsense.  Bureaucrats came to help Abe's friends, neglecting regulations and rules, through official and administrative processes, which caused the Morito/Kakei scandals.

However, there are no strong opposition parties and non-LDP politicians.  Even the Kibonoto Party launched by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has recently lost momentum.  She does not even run for the election.  That is why newspapers and TV programs forecast that the ruling party will secure more than 300 seats (among the new full quota of 465).

However, it is said that the future is a closed book, especially in politics.           

Unique Tokyo

The global ranking of cities in 2017 is as follows:
1. London
2. New York
3. Tokyo
4. Paris
5. Singapore
6. Seoul
7. Amsterdom
8. Berlin
9. Hong Kong
10. Sydeney
http://mori-m-foundation.or.jp/english/ius2/gpci2/index.shtml

Among 10, four East Asia cities, or four Asian cities around the western Pacific are elected.  In comparison, four western European cities are also elected.

However, two (Singapore and Hong Kong) of the Asian cities were once colonized by the UK.  Seoul was once governed by the Japanese Government.  Tokyo has never been colonized by any Western powers or China.

London is situated as the bridge between Europe and the US.  New York is situated between Europe, including the UK, and other regions.  However, Tokyo is the Asian city independent from European traditions and situated as the leading Asian city. 

The UK once colonized many regions in the world.  So, people from various tribes in the world came to live in London.  Even the London Mayor is now Pakistani.  New York is the commercial and financial center of the US built by immigrants not only from Europe but also from all over the world.  Even Jewish people account for 13% of the New York population.  But only 440,000
foreigners live in Tokyo with 9.2 million population.  Tokyo is still a city of the Japanese race.

However, the most important city for the mankind is of course Jerusalem followed by Rome and Mecca in terms of religion.

And Tokyo is not a city of Judaists, Christians, or Muslims but of Buddhists, since most of the Japanese are associated with Buddhism.  Tokyo must be still unique.  And, Tokyo Governor Ms. Yuriko Koike has become head of the Kibono-to Party to complete with PM Abe in the ongoing lower-house election although she doesn't run for the election.  In this context, Tokyo and Tokyo Governor are unique.

True Agenda of the General Election in Japan

The upper-house election was officially announced today in Japan.  The polling date was on October 22.

There is a possibility that Prime Minister Abe will be forced to resign even if his Liberal Democratic Party and Komei-to Party, forming the coalition ruling patties, win a majority (233 seats) of the lower-house seats if LDP loses scores of seats from its past 287 seats.

From the beginning, PM Abe decided to dissolve the upper house and hold this election to avoid criticism on him due to the Moritomo/Kake scandals where PM Abe is believed to have exercised his political influence in favor of the Moritomo primary school and a university belonging to the Kakei school group.

However, PM Abe raised reformation of the Constitution as one of the agendas for the election.  PM Abe claims that the Japanese pacifist Constitution should be changed so that the Self-Defense Forces should be explicitly authorized in the Constitution.  He wants to give Japan's Defense Forces a status that is enjoyed by military of normal countries.  The Japanese Constitution literally inhibits the Japanese Government from holding military forces, so that it calls the organizations with military powers the Self-Defense Forces but not the army, the navy, and the air forces.

However, the current Japanese Constitution enacted in 1947, when Japan was under occupation of the allied forced led by General MacArthur, has never been revised in these 70 years.  Nationalists and right-wing politicians like PM Shinzo Abe has long wanted to revise the Constitution and give constitutional authorization to the Self-Defense Forces.  As a matter of fact, the US currently stations about 40,000 soldiers in Japan and runs several big air bases and naval ports with one home port for one of its nuclear aircraft carriers in Japan.  The Japanese people believe that they are protected from Russia, China, North Korea, etc. with this US forces and its nuclear weapons in addition to the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.  So the Japanese people don't want to upgrade the status of its Self-Defense Forces, since it might trigger militarism that once dragged Japan into WWII.

Mr. Abe is very pro-America, but he also wants to upgrade the constitutional status of the Self-Defense Forces and he is supported by nationalists and right-wing people.

Liberal or progressive movement is Japan is not strong.  Maybe 30% of Diet members are pacifists, liberal or progressive.  Most of them are not so pro-American.   But most of Japanese voters are pro-American.  So, left-wing parties, represented by the Japanese Communist Party, has only a slim chance of holding power in Japan through election.  But most of Japanese are also pacifists and don't join right-wing movement.  They don't want to even revise the current Constitution.

So, it is doubtful that PM Abe will win this election with overwhelming support from voters.  But it is also unlikely that he will lose the election.  The ruling parties of Abe's LDP and Komei-to will secure a majority, but it seems to be likely that LDP will lose scores of seats.   The point at issue is how many seats LDP will lose rather than the political agenda related to the national security.  If LDP loses almost 100 seats, Mr. Shinzo Abe might be forced to step down from the presidency of LDP and the premiership.

Tokyo Governor Koike Creating Boom in National Election in Japan

The most focused-on figure in this lower-house election in Japan is Tokyo Governor Ms. Yuriuko Koike.

She had been a lawmaker of the National Diet from 1992 to 2016 when she quit the Diet lawmaker position and ran for the Tokyo gubernatorial election.  Before her, two successive Tokyo Governors were forced to resign in the middle for their terms for various scandals.  She created a boom and wan the election.

During her 24-year terms of a Diet lawmaker, she changed parties she belonged to several times.  She was a member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) when she decided to run for the Tokyo gubernatorial election last year.  The president of LDP is Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.  However, PM Abe in his cabinets since 2012 never appointed her to a Minister of State although she had been appointed to the Minister of Defense in Abe's cabinet when he was previously prime minister of Japan from 2006 to 2007.  The relation between PM Abe and Ms. Koike was not good.  So, last year, while LDP led by PM Abe supported another candidate for Tokyo Governor, Ms. Koike dared to run for  the Tokyo gubernatorial election, challenging PM Abe's leadership.  She even established Tomin First party for election of Tokyo metropolitan assembly election this summer.  Tomin First party got more seats than LDP got.  It looked as if Ms. Koike had defeated LDP and PM Abe.

In this lower-house election, Ms. Koike has established the Kibono-to party and sent about 200 or more candidates. As she is conservative, which is proved by her former membership in LDP, two conservative parties are facing each other: LDP led by PM Abe and Kibono-to led by Ms. Koike. Kibono-to took in many conservative members of Minshin-to, the largest opposition party till the lower-house dissolution at the end of this September. She made them consent to accept conservative plocies she drafted. The liberal or leftist members of Minshin-to who could not accept the conservative policies launched their won new party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.  So, Minshin-to was virtually split into two new parties: Kibono-to and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

LDP had more than 280 seats and Minshin-to had about 90 seats in the lower-house before the dissolution. In this election, the majority is 233.  PM Abe aims to secure 233 or more seats in a tie up with Komei-to that had 35 seats before the dissolution of the lower house.  But the approval rate of PM Abe has decreased to less than 40% recently.  Ms. Koike's Kibono-to is expected to win around 150 seats.  So, although it is not estimated that PM Abe and LDP/Komei-to would lose a majority, Ms. Koime's Kibono-to will be the largest opposition party.

However, Ms. Koike will reportedly not run for the lower house election.  She will continue to be Tokyo Governor.  But she is the head of Kibono-to.  After the election, the lower house will vote for the prime minister.  The problem is who the Kobono-to's lower house lawmakers will vote for as prime minister.  They cannot cast votes for Ms. Koike, since she is Tokyo Governor.  However, some people suspect that she will run for the lower-house election immediately before the official campaign period that will start on October 10 during which no other candidates can announce their candidacy.

The Japanese Media is reporting on Ms. Koike more often than PM Abe nowadays.  Indeed, Tokyo Governor Koike is the most focused on in this lower house election in Japan.