Ballots will be cast tomorrow for the 2017 lower-house election in Japan. It is expected that the ruling parties, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Komeito Party based on the Buddhist association Sokagakkai, will secure 300 seats among total 465.
But now a huge typhoon is approaching to Japan. Most of Japan will suffer strong winds and rains tomorrow, so that the voter turnout will be low. Some electoral districts have accelerated the voting day to today, the day before the specified voting day. And, when the voting rate is low, the ruling parties are given advantage.
When the then opposition party Democratic Party of Japan wan the election to take over power from LDP and Komeito in 2009, the voting rate was about 70%. When LDP and Komeito took over power in 2012, it was about 59%. But it was less than 55% in the 2014 general election where LDP and Komeito secured their power.
For the conservative coalition of LDP and Komeito, the low voting rate is advantageous. Or, the mainstream trend of the Japanese politics is conservative. It is rather exceptional that liberal or leftist parties such as Democratic Party of Japan wan an election. Those liberal or progressive parties, in order to win election, need social environment and climate where voters are tired of or feel alarm about a conservative regime. When people are discontent with ruling parties, the number of voters will increase. But when people don't find any significant reason for replacing a regime, the voting rate decreases.
Abenomics has been partly successful. Conservative parties are partly supported by international situations where North Korea is busy testing nuclear bombs and missiles and Trump is taking a hard stance on the Japanese-American trade relationship. Scandals involving Prime Minister Abe do not seem to have strong impacts to the extent of threatening his political ground. Accordingly, it is expected that PM Abe and his party LDP will win.
And the only strong momentum among the oppositions has been caused by Tokyo Governor Ms. Yuriko Koike who has challenged PM Abe (probably from a personal reason that she was not respected by Mr. Abe when she was in LDP till last year for years) and by Mr. Edano who formed the Rikken Minsyuto Party after Minshinto (old Democratic Party of Japan) was split after most of its members joined the Kibonoto Party established by Ms. Koike for her high popularity and reducing support of voters for Minshinto. This movement might not strongly appeal to voters.
However, only God knows what will happen tomorrow, Oct. 22, 2017.
