Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Abenomics or Scandals

The results of the 2014 lower-house election of the Japanese Diet as follows in terms of the number of seats each party acquired among the total 475 seats.

Liberal Democratic Party (led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe): 291
Komeito (another ruling paty): 35

Democratic Party of Japan: 73
Ishinnoto: 41
Japanese Communist Party: 21

Others: 6

PM Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wan the election, securing two thirds of the seats in a tie with Komeito.

As the ruling parties secures 2/3 seats even in the upper house, PM Abe could have even tried to change the Constitution.  But, he did not venture into this controversial movement, but decided to dissolve the lower house as response to criticism to his political attitudes causing the Morito/Kakei scandals.

As PM Abe is well known for his desire to change the pacifist Constitution and specify the Self Defense Forces as ordinary military most of countries have, opposition parties are worried that PM Abe and the ruling parties dare to change the Constitution if they win in this 2017 election.

The reason why PM Abe and the ruling parties wan the 2014 election overwhelmingly is not because Japanese voters wanted or consented to changing the Constitution but because economics was rather in good conditions due to the so-called Abenomics.  The popularity of PM Abe depends on success in economy.  For example, the Nikei index of the Tokyo Stock Market has recently marked 21,000 yen for the first time in these 20 years.  The general public don't want opposition parties or other politicians that belonged to the Democratic Party under which the stock price was around 8,500 yen to come back to power since 2012.

But, some critics argue that even Hitler succeeded in economics.  So, they say that Abe's scandals must be weighed more than the success of economics.  PM Abe got arrogant due to the economic success and he started to do special or almost illegal favor to his friends beyond commonsense.  Bureaucrats came to help Abe's friends, neglecting regulations and rules, through official and administrative processes, which caused the Morito/Kakei scandals.

However, there are no strong opposition parties and non-LDP politicians.  Even the Kibonoto Party launched by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has recently lost momentum.  She does not even run for the election.  That is why newspapers and TV programs forecast that the ruling party will secure more than 300 seats (among the new full quota of 465).

However, it is said that the future is a closed book, especially in politics.